The fundamentals for how and why technologies are developed are not so clear to even those who have become expert at inventing. New ways of looking at technology are in order.
Ray Kurzwiel is very convincing in his argument that technology evolution is best understood to be the extention of biological evolution. Put another way, all of biological evolution is part of a continuous process of steady growth and development for over 3 billion years on planet earth. Mathematitions would rightly suggest that this process basically is the evaluation of a ‘solution space’ that contains all possible servival technologies through a simple algorythmic process. This view is bulstered by the very compelling theory that our universe is but one instance within a larger space of all possible universes governed by laws of computation (Steven Wolfram). The fact that life is based on a type of computer code called DNA (or RNA) is further evidence that Ray Kurswile is amlost certianly correct in viewing the 3 billion year history of evolution as one continuous thing. A force of nature almost as essential as the law of gravitation. This is the first thing that we must accept about the nature of modern technology and as such we can use biology as a guide.
Evolution is selection not creation. The process of creativity is mutation and sex/ mixing.
Do ideas have sex? There is clearly an exchange of ideas and perhaps that exchange was once sexual. Blending is surely a core element to how technology can evolve very rapidly and many great ideas are developed at the intersection of one domain with another. Perhaps that is the “sexual process” of technology. When a material developed in the space program is merged with the design technology of rescue blankets, for instance. The process of taking one “core discovery” or breakthrough technology and trying it out in other domains is often the combination of two species of technology. Like a cross breeding of plants. It is interesting that even in biology “species sex” occurs via genetic engineering. Is trade really a proper analogy to sexual blending and re-production of biological species or does it rhyme better with a biological innovation like flagella or being a virus. I think that trade is much more analogs and important to technology as a viral mechanism. Perhaps ideas have sex within the confines of our minds deep in the subconscious where inventing happens. A deep understanding of cognition is required before really understanding this. …On the other hand, perhaps trade is closer to multi-cellularity in humans but on the scale of society. Multicellularity allows greater complexity because of economies of scale and resource sharing. The same principle of “opportunity costs” is exhibited but the benefits of trade are between cells.
4 Genius is from Love (Malcom Gladwell)
Malcom argues in his new book that genius in an art requires the love for a thing at an early age in order to develop. Love is not enough to become the very best in the world and it is true that innate skill, resources and luck are involved but love is the key requirement. This idea is interesting in it’s own right but it resonates with something that Burt Rutan (winner of the first X prize for private space flight) has theorized about the cultural and developmental pre-requisite for periods of great technological breakthroughs. In an analysis of both the pivotal individuals in commercial airlines (H. House etc) and those who are now developing the commercial flight industry there were unique conditions at a young age. During the early 1900s young children grew up in an era where the first powered aircraft had been invented and the long held dream of human flight had been realized. Symmetrically, During the 1970s young children witnessed the rapid development of human spaceflight and the moon landing shortly their after. Both of these periods were steeped in a culture of rapid technological change and immense social enthusiasm for flight. Perhaps one of the most overlooked elements of technoligcal breakthroughs is the genius that results from young children becoming passionate enough to dedicate enough time in something before graduating college. Perhaps it is true that genius level skill is the only thing that can create the big explosions in technological progress.
There are also operational benifits of having people that truely love what they are working on. People that love what they do are willing to make large investments of time and money in projects without clear returns and this entrepreneurial spirit is required when you are doing things that a large number of experts don’t think is possible. This is one factor that gives entrepreneurial companies an edge when competing with large and well funded incombants. The behaviors of people and the things that they hone their skills doing seems to be an important and often overlooked driving factor in the pace of technological change.
Selection Pressure: Resource Scarcity, harsh environments, War and sports
There seem to be four major selection pressures that act to topple the reign of incumbent technologies in order to free energy and materials for the growth of new ones. Where selection pressures are felt the most harshly and sufficent “technical diversity” is present because of a period of creativity on the sidelines this is where the biggest new approaches will emerge.
Maybe technology is Lamarck in it’s development. Each species “learning” through incremental change over time until it adds up to a fundamentally better performance. This technology species can then “have sex” with others and give other species the fitness it found by trial and error.